The weather in the Western Pacific is currently being dominated by a new tropical depression in the West Philippine Sea and a tropical trough in the Philippine Sea. These systems have been working in tandem, causing heavy rainfall and flooding across regions from Cebu down to Mindanao in the Philippines and extending into parts of Vietnam. This article provides an in-depth analysis of these weather phenomena and their impacts.
Overview of the Tropical Depression
The newly identified tropical depression is a classic example of a monsoonal gyre. On satellite imagery, you can observe the low-level center of the system, which is almost exposed but not sheared off. This system exhibits a characteristic donut shape with a wide wind field, meaning the highest winds are typically not near the center of circulation but spread out across a broader area. This broad wind field can have serious impacts, including heavy rainfall and flooding, even if the system does not develop into a full-blown tropical storm.
Current Impacts and Forecast
Vietnam and the Philippines: The tropical depression and associated weather systems have already caused significant impacts in Vietnam and the Philippines. In Vietnam, heavy rainfall has led to flooding and a landslide, resulting in 11 reported deaths. Similarly, in Cebu, heavy rains have caused landslides and damage to infrastructure. Mindanao has also been experiencing several days of continuous precipitation, leading to further damage and flooding.
Meteorological Analysis: The Vietnam Meteorological Agency forecasts that the tropical depression will track westward, making landfall just north of Da Nang. However, the broader impacts of the system are not confined to the center of circulation. The inflow from the trough and the tropical depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall across the Philippines, southern Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and northern Thailand.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded the system to a tropical depression (TD). Rainfall totals are expected to be significant, with parts of the Indochina Peninsula potentially receiving 300 to 400 millimeters of precipitation, while southern parts of the Philippines could see 100 to 200 millimeters.
Detailed Regional Forecast
Philippines:
- Palawan: Increasing showers are expected from Monday to Tuesday.
- West Coast of Luzon: Scattered showers due to the inflow from the west.
- Manila: Midweek travel could be disrupted by heavy rainfall, particularly from Monday to Wednesday. Ferry services might be affected.
- Cebu and Visayas: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted, with temperatures around 30°C. The eastern islands will see most of the precipitation, while western areas like Mindoro will also experience significant rainfall.
- Mindanao: Continuous scattered showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the lower 30s.
Vietnam and Indochina:
- Southern Vietnam: Significant rainfall is expected, especially in regions close to the tropical depression.
- Cambodia and Laos: These areas will also receive heavy rainfall, with totals potentially reaching 300 to 400 millimeters.
- Northern Thailand: Rainfall will extend into this region as well.
Safety and Precautionary Measures
Floodwaters can rise rapidly and often contain hazardous objects. It is crucial to stay out of floodwaters and adhere to local advisories. Always rely on official information from meteorological agencies and local authorities for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Additional Weather Concerns
Rainy Season Front: Apart from the tropical depression and trough, the rainy season front (also known as the Meiyu-Baiu front) continues to affect eastern China and western Japan. In Kyushu, Japan, heavy rainfall has caused whiteout conditions, with some areas receiving 50 to 100 millimeters in just a few hours. Kagoshima has recorded about 150 millimeters of rainfall in the past 24 hours, leading to significant challenges.
Long-Term Outlook
The energy associated with the current weather systems is dispersed, which reduces the likelihood of a significant typhoon forming. However, the widespread rainfall and instability can still lead to localized severe weather events, including strong thunderstorms and potential spin-up tornadoes.
Conclusion
While the current tropical depression may not develop into a major typhoon, the heavy rainfall and associated impacts should not be underestimated. The Philippines, Vietnam, and surrounding regions need to prepare for continued adverse weather conditions in the coming days. Stay informed through official sources and take necessary precautions to ensure safety.
For more detailed updates and weather forecasts, visit WesternPacificWeather.com. Special thanks to our Patreon members for supporting the site. If you have any questions or need further information, feel free to reach out.
Stay safe, everyone, and keep an eye on the weather!
Robert Speta