Today, we have a lot to discuss regarding the current weather situation in the Western Pacific, particularly around the Philippines. While we may not be looking at a fully developed tropical depression or an invest area, there are significant tropical disturbances both to the east and west of the Philippines that demand our attention. These disturbances, although not receiving the hype of major storms, still pose substantial risks, especially due to the heavy rainfall they bring.
Current Weather Situation
In Mindanao, particularly in Cagayan de Oro (CDO), we’ve experienced heavy rains causing significant flooding over the past 24 hours. This rainfall is expected to continue through the weekend and into the next week, gradually shifting northwards as the weather systems progress.
Monsoonal Gyre and Trough
First, we have a monsoonal gyre affecting the west coast of the Philippines. This gyre has been bringing showers and instability to the region. Concurrently, there’s a trough moving across parts of the Visayas, eventually affecting Manila. This creates a one-two punch of heavy precipitation from both systems.
- Saturday and Sunday: The monsoonal gyre will continue to bring showers to the west coast, while the trough will move inland, impacting areas like Leyte and Samar before eventually moving towards Manila. This trough, though not officially designated as a Low Pressure Area (LPA), is causing significant disturbances and rainfall.
- Next Week: The low associated with the monsoonal gyre is expected to move south of Hainan into northern Vietnam, while another low will move onshore in the eastern Philippines.
Impacts and Advisories
The primary concern with these systems is not the development of strong winds or a typhoon, but the substantial rainfall they bring. This can lead to localized flooding and significant disruptions. The spread-out energy of these systems means they are unlikely to condense into a major storm, but the rain can still cause severe impacts.
- Flood Risks: Remember, floodwaters can rise quickly and carry sharp objects. Avoid walking through floodwaters and stay safe.
- Rainfall and Lightning: Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall are expected. Some localized strong storm cells and even spin-up tornadoes are possible.
- Official Information: Always seek information from official sources before the arrival of any tropical system to ensure safety and preparedness.
Detailed Weather Analysis
From a meteorological perspective, upper-level winds are creating significant shear over the tropical trough, with wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots. This shear inhibits the formation of a strong tropical system but contributes to localized strong storms and heavy rainfall.
The ECMWF model shows two distinct lows and a high chance of deepening the monsoonal gyre. The total precipitable water vapor imagery illustrates how the trough is tapping into the monsoonal flow, leading to an abundance of rainfall across the region.
Regional Forecasts
Davao and Cagayan de Oro: Expect daily showers with temperatures pushing into the 30s. Scattered showers will dominate the weather pattern, particularly along the coast.
Siargao: Scattered showers are expected from Saturday through Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20s. Monday will likely be a particularly rainy day.
Cebu: Scattered showers and temperatures in the lower 30s are forecasted.
Manila: Showers will increase, especially towards the end of the weekend and into next week.
Broader Weather Patterns
In addition to the tropical systems, the rainy season front (Meiyu-Baiu front) is affecting eastern China and western Japan. Kyushu has experienced significant rainfall, with some areas receiving 50 to 100 millimeters in just a few hours. Over the past 24 hours, Kagoshima has recorded 150 millimeters of rainfall.
The monsoonal flow, combined with the Meiyu-Baiu front, has created a challenging weather situation in the region. This combination brings heavy rain and high heat, causing significant discomfort and health issues. In Japan, around 9,000 people have been hospitalized due to heatstroke in the past 72 hours.
Summary and Safety Tips
In summary, while we may not be looking at a major typhoon, the current weather setup in the Western Pacific, particularly around the Philippines, calls for vigilance. The heavy rainfall from the monsoonal gyre and the trough can lead to significant flooding and disruptions. Stay informed through official sources and take necessary precautions to ensure your safety.
For more detailed updates and weather forecasts, visit WesternPacificWeather.com. A big thank you to our Patreon members for supporting the site and helping us keep it running. If you have any questions or need further information, feel free to reach out.